Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 4-1 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Celta de Vigo II, 26% draw, 34% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 3K. RibesD
- 18Joel LópezD
- 2P. GavianM
- 29M. SobralM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 11Ángel ArcosM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 17H. CuencaM
- 31Raúl BlancoM
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 23G. MillerD
- 4S. M. NdiayeD
- 14Jan OliverasD
- 1Aitor FragaG
- 22RupérezD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 5K. KitaD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 16Gorka GorosabelM
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 7Dani DíazF
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 17Lander AstiazaránF
- 34Andrews AdjabengF
- 23Unax AgoteD
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 24A. UnaxD
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 38Xuban FernandezF
- 35Daniel Galilea TellaecheG
- 36Hodei GaritaonaindiaF
- 2Jon GarroD
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
Celta de Vigo II
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
Real Sociedad II
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
- 10 October 2026Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 24 May 2025Real Sociedad II 2–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 11 January 2025Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 4 May 2024Real Sociedad II 0–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 26 November 2023Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin51
Real Sociedad II
GoalsAssists
- Gorka Gorosabel31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.