Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Spartak Moscow.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Krylia Sovetov, 26% draw, 43% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 80N. KokarevG
- 15N. RasskazovD
- 23N. ChernovD
- 47S. BozhinD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 22Fernando CostanzaM
- 4Y. GorshkovM
- 14N. SaltykovM
- 8M. VityugovM
- 10M. KramaričM
- 11A. RahmanovićF
- 77D. MakarovM
- 18I. LepskiyD
- 5D. OrozD
- 73V. ShitovF
- 67Kazbek MukailovF
- 26J. MarínM
- 97I. AkhmetovM
- 7M. BanjacM
- 72Dani FernándezD
- 98A. MaksimenkoG
- 83Gedson FernandesD
- 3C. WoohD
- 6S. BabićD
- 47R. ZobninD
- 68R. LitvinovM
- 18N. UmyarovM
- 7P. SolariM
- 5E. BarcoM
- 10MarquinhosM
- 9M. UgaldeF
- 40I. SorokinM
- 17V. SausM
- 25D. PrutsevM
- 62P. PolekhF
- 33Víctor ParadaD
- 24Nikita MassalygaM
- 56A. DovbnyaG
- 27I. DmitrievM
- 97D. DenisovD
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
Spartak Moscow
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
- 10 October 2026Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 4 July 2026Spartak Moscow 3–2 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 21 September 2025Spartak Moscow 2–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 18 May 2025Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 19 September 2024Spartak Moscow 4–1 Krylia SovetovCup
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović30
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde40
- M. Daku31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.