11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Het Kuipje, Westerlo
Referee: B. Van Driessche
Full time5 – 1

Final score: KVC Westerlo 5-1 Antwerp.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% KVC Westerlo, 25% draw, 27% Antwerp — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KVC Westerlo at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KVC Westerlo99%Draw1%Antwerp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽I. Salah
T. Van den Keybus
26'
⚽C. Sandraassist: D. Ourega
45'
🔁T. Van den Keybusout: E. Tsimba
46'
51'
M. Benitez
I. Sakamoto
56'
57'
🔁M. Freyout: S. Porozo
⚽N. Bassetteassist: S. Saito
60'
65'
🔁X. Dierckxout: C. Scott
65'
🔁I. Salahout: M. Fofana
⚽E. Tsimba
72'
🔁N. Bassetteout: R. Laalaoui
73'
75'
C. Scott
77'
S. Porozo
84'
🔁D. Foulonout: Y. Tsunashima
🔁I. Sakamotoout: Yang Min-Hyuk
85'
🔁S. Saitoout: N. Bohamdi-Kamoni
85'
85'
🔁S. Rendersout: L. Narh
87'
A. Cortes
⚽L. Flo
88'
🔁C. Sandraout: P. Diong
89'
⚽Yang Min-Hyukassist: A. Jungdal
90'

Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

57%Possession43%
14Shots13
6On target3
3Corners3
2.43xG0.91

Goals against chances

KVC Westerlo5 from 2.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Antwerp1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KVC Westerlo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. JungdalG
  • 2L. FloD
  • 5S. KimuraD
  • 4A. LapageD
  • 28D. OuregaD
  • 45I. FofanaM
  • 14C. SandraM
  • 39T. Van den KeybusM
  • 13I. SakamotoM
  • 7S. SaitoM
  • 9N. BassetteF
Substitutes
  • 1B. LathouwersG
  • 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
  • 40B. BaloghD
  • 12R. LaalaouiM
  • 26P. DiongM
  • 17D. Jochem
  • 22E. TsimbaF
  • 47Yang Min-HyukF
  • 11N. Bohamdi-KamoniF
Coach: Issame Charai
Antwerp 4-2-3-1
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 3A. CortesD
  • 5D. FoulonD
  • 8M. BenitezM
  • 48A. VermeerenM
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 24T. SomersM
  • 7I. SalahM
  • 9M. FreyF
Substitutes
  • 81N. DevalckeneerG
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaM
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 10C. ScottM
  • 22F. AdekamiM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 33S. PorozoM
  • 99L. NarhF
Coach: Marvin Compper

Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

KVC Westerlo

  • W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026
  • W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
  • W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
  • D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026

Antwerp

  • L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Club Brugge KV13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Standard Liege5 September 2026
  • L1-4St. Truiden30 August 2026

What these results say

  • KVC Westerlo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • KVC Westerlo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • KVC Westerlo won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Antwerp did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Antwerp conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6KVC Westerlo84132017+313
13Antwerp82151220-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

  • 11 October 2026KVC Westerlo 5–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 23 May 2026Antwerp 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 25 April 2026KVC Westerlo 2–4 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 15 February 2026Antwerp 0–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 30 August 2025KVC Westerlo 2–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 19 January 2025Antwerp 3–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Antwerp

KVC Westerlo

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bassette50
  • S. Saito31

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frey40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.