Sudtirol vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sudtirol, 31% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sudtirol at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sudtirol vs Ascoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 79S. MolinaD
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 24S. DavìD
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 14A. VasicM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 17L. AnghelèF
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 1Lukas PlonerG
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
- 12Rok VadjunecG
- 3D. VeroliD
- 40Jannik LeitnerF
- 1S. VitaleG
- 14A. OliveriD
- 30M. CuradoD
- 33N. RizzoD
- 19A. GuiébréD
- 4S. DamianiM
- 8G. CorradiniM
- 7A. SilipoM
- 62T. MilaneseM
- 15S. D'UffiziM
- 99Matteo BrunoriF
- 77D. BolsiusF
- 9A. ChakirF
- 45G. CrespiG
- 21G. De PieriM
- 32F. GattoniD
- 35G. GoriF
- 18L. Lo ScalzoM
- 3M. NicolettiD
- 11S. PerciunM
Form going into Sudtirol vs Ascoli
Sudtirol
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
Ascoli
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ascoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ascoli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Ascoli
- 10 October 2026Sudtirol 0–0 AscoliSerie B
- 4 February 2024Ascoli 1–2 SudtirolSerie B
- 2 September 2023Sudtirol 3–1 AscoliSerie B
- 15 April 2023Ascoli 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 27 November 2022Sudtirol 2–2 AscoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Ascoli
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.