Empoli vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Empoli 2-4 Palermo.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Empoli, 29% draw, 42% Palermo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palermo at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Empoli vs Palermo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 25M. CurtoD
- 6S. RomagnoliD
- 33C. CauzD
- 15J. CeesayM
- 8L. MagninoM
- 23F. BandinelliM
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 77B. PopovF
- 10E. SaporitiF
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
- 44L. DeliM
- 35M. EganD
- 13E. FilippisG
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 16F. MeznarF
- 1S. PerisanG
- 11S. ShpendiF
- 14M. FortinG
- 84T. CassandroD
- 13M. BaniD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 5A. PalumboM
- 17D. JohnsenM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 11E. GyasiD
- 6C. GomesM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 24N. EstévezM
- 33A. BozzolanD
- 23HernaniM
- 36L. MazzitelliM
- 12M. NespolaG
Form going into Empoli vs Palermo
Empoli
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
Palermo
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Empoli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Empoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Empoli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Palermo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Palermo
- 10 October 2026Empoli 2–4 PalermoSerie B
- 7 February 2026Palermo 3–2 EmpoliSerie B
- 7 December 2025Empoli 1–3 PalermoSerie B
- 2 February 2018Empoli 4–0 PalermoSerie B
- 9 September 2017Palermo 3–3 EmpoliSerie B
- 28 May 2017Palermo 2–1 EmpoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Empoli and Palermo
Empoli
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen45
- J. Pohjanpalo22
- A. Palumbo21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.