10 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City Stars League prediction & result

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Al Shahaniya 1-0 Lusail City.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Al Shahaniya, 25% draw, 49% Lusail City — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lusail City at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shahaniya94%Draw6%Lusail City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ibrahima Diallo
45'
🔁Francesco Antonucciout: Moameen Mutasem
45'
⚽Mohamed Abdelfatah Suragassist: Jawad El Jemili
54'
🔁Mohamed Abdelfatah Suragout: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo
72'
78'
🔁Naif Al-Hadhramiout: Khaled Mansour
Moameen Mutasem
81'
83'
🔁Amin Pilaliout: Mohamed Khaled
89'
Hamidreza Firouzi
90'
🔁Khaled Mohammedout: Muhammad Taher Khan
90'
🔁Omid Ebrahimiout: Tiago Geralnik
90'
🔁Mohamed Aiashout: Saud Jjbril
90+6'
•Muhammad Taher Khan

Match stats — Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City

42%Possession58%
13Shots11
1On target4
7Corners5
0.94xG1.04

Goals against chances

Al Shahaniya1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lusail City0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya 4-2-3-1
  • 99Shehab EllethyG
  • 19Abdulla Al SulaitiD
  • 22S. van BeekD
  • 5MuniesaD
  • 32Khalid MuftahD
  • 27I. DialloM
  • 6Álvaro SanzM
  • 21Mohamed SuragM
  • 10F. AntonucciM
  • 11Jawad El JemiliM
  • 9A. TraoréF
Substitutes
  • 17Abdulrahman Fahmi MoustafaF
  • 14Salah Alawi Al YahriM
  • 23Mohamed SaeedG
  • 2A. MohamedD
  • 16Mohamed AbdallahG
  • 77Yousef Hani BallanD
  • 8A. MeherziM
  • 88Moameen MutasemM
  • 20Ali QadryM
Coach: Younes Ali
Lusail City 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. ShakouriG
  • 2A. PilaliD
  • 4F. RussoD
  • 27M. AiashD
  • 66A. NematiD
  • 6O. EbrahimiM
  • 7F. ZavoshiM
  • 20Naif Al HadhramiM
  • 8Khaled MohammedM
  • 11H. FirouziM
  • 19RodrigoF
Substitutes
  • 10S. JjbrilM
  • 77Mohamed Al AshwalG
  • 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
  • 22T. GeralnikM
  • 70Mohamed KhaledF
  • 30H. KamalD
  • 3Ali MalolahD
  • 5A. Al KaratlyM
  • 14K. MansourM
Coach: Emanuel Mesquita

Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City

Al Shahaniya

  • D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
  • L2-4away to Al Shamal4 September 2026
  • W3-2Al-Sailiya29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Gharafa21 August 2026

Lusail City

  • D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
  • W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Al Ahli Doha28 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Al-Rayyan SC20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Al Shahaniya scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al Shahaniya conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Al Shahaniya.
  • Lusail City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Al Shahaniya521289-17
8Lusail City512275+25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City

  • 10 October 2026Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail CityStars League
  • 6 December 2025Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
  • 12 February 2024Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail CitySecond Division
  • 1 October 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
  • 6 May 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
  • 10 February 2023Al Shahaniya 2–0 Lusail CitySecond Division

Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Lusail City

Al Shahaniya

GoalsAssists

  • F. Antonucci32
  • A. Traoré20

Lusail City

GoalsAssists

  • F. Zavoshi30
  • Rodrigo30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.