Arezzo vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Arezzo 0-0 Cremonese.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Arezzo, 26% draw, 48% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cremonese at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arezzo vs Cremonese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 6A. RenziD
- 13M. GilliD
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 10E. PattarelloF
- 9A. CerriF
- 16Mattia SalaF
- 5J. IllanesD
- 30A. ArenaF
- 33D. ManciniD
- 11L. MancusoF
- 8S. MawuliM
- 2M. MenaD
- 90A. SeculinG
- 21C. TavernelliF
- 23M. VivianiM
- 1A. FulignatiG
- 6F. BaschirottoD
- 15M. BianchettiD
- 5S. LupertoD
- 3G. PezzellaD
- 2M. ThorsbyM
- 33A. GrassiM
- 18M. CollocoloM
- 71S. EliaM
- 27J. VandeputteM
- 19M. NastiF
- 22F. AgazziG
- 4T. BarbieriD
- 14T. BertiM
- 9M. De LucaF
- 12M. FestaG
- 26Gabriel HerzuahF
- 17A. LickūnasF
- 10Adin LičinaM
- 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
Form going into Arezzo vs Cremonese
Arezzo
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
Cremonese
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arezzo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cremonese failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cremonese conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cremonese had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Cremonese
- 10 October 2026Arezzo 0–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 30 September 2020Cremonese 4–0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
- 26 February 2017Arezzo 0–1 CremoneseSerie C
- 9 October 2016Cremonese 3–2 ArezzoSerie C
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Cremonese
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.