Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Vicenza Virtus 0-3 Pisa.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Vicenza Virtus, 27% draw, 38% Pisa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pisa at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16R. GagnoG
- 14G. CuomoD
- 6M. LeverbeD
- 27T. SandonD
- 99A. PietrelliM
- 26G. PellizzariM
- 4M. CarraroM
- 29L. ZontaM
- 5R. MarchizzaM
- 33S. MerkajF
- 24Filippo AlessioF
- 8A. BellemoM
- 23N. BrighentiD
- 11G. MonciniF
- 32F. CostaD
- 21T. CorazzaD
- 9C. MorraF
- 66A. PapettiD
- 7N. RautiF
- 44R. TalaricoM
- 98A. ConfenteG
- 33A. CalabresiD
- 13A. PrimassoD
- 3S. AngoriD
- 72S. ZanonM
- 55G. LeoneM
- 29O. CorreiaM
- 7M. LérisM
- 32S. MoreoM
- 10M. TramoniM
- 8F. PittarelloF
- 44D. DenoonD
- 11I. FerrahM
- 14F. LoyolaD
- 23T. MarrasF
- 36G. PiccininiM
- 17E. RaoF
- 1S. ScuffetG
- 21İ. VuralM
- 2R. BozhinovD
Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
Vicenza Virtus
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
Pisa
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
What these results say
- Vicenza Virtus did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pisa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
- Pisa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
- 10 October 2026Vicenza Virtus 0–3 PisaSerie B
- 15 February 2022Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 18 September 2021Vicenza Virtus 1–3 PisaSerie B
- 27 February 2021Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 31 October 2020Vicenza Virtus 4–4 PisaSerie B
- 12 March 2017Vicenza Virtus 2–1 PisaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Pisa
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj21
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello21
- A. Calabresi20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.