Benevento vs Cesena Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Benevento 2-0 Cesena.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Benevento, 27% draw, 23% Cesena — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benevento at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benevento vs Cesena
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26G. VannucchiG
- 77E. PierozziD
- 14S. ScognamilloD
- 23P. SaioD
- 20P. BeruattoD
- 8M. MaitaM
- 11D. LamestaM
- 6A. SiatounisM
- 28C. KouanM
- 9F. SalveminiF
- 29D. OkerekeF
- 15C. Dalle MuraD
- 10L. CherubiniF
- 16Mattia ManniniD
- 32G. MignaniF
- 25Raffaele RomanoD
- 22M. EspositoG
- 21E. SchimmentiM
- 18P. SimonettiM
- 38A. TaliaM
- 1A. SianoG
- 15A. CiofiD
- 6M. IlićD
- 24M. MangravitiD
- 7G. FrabottaD
- 25D. BisoliM
- 32E. BohinenM
- 10R. PaganoM
- 16L. D'AndreaF
- 9C. ShpendiF
- 27M. Dalla VecchiaF
- 91A. DebenedettiF
- 14X. DruiventakM
- 80A. FioriF
- 39N. FontanaG
- 8M. FrancesconiM
- 4J. GelliD
- 18M. GuidiM
- 34M. LontaniM
- 23V. MagniD
Form going into Benevento vs Cesena
Benevento
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
Cesena
- D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
- D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
- D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Benevento had two goals or fewer.
- Cesena went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Cesena scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cesena conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Cesena
- 10 October 2026Benevento 2–0 CesenaSerie B
- 25 April 2017Cesena 4–1 BeneventoSerie B
- 5 December 2016Benevento 2–1 CesenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Cesena
Benevento
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.