Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Sadd 2-3 Al-Arabi SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Al Sadd, 22% draw, 24% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Saad Al SheebG
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 5Tarek SalmanD
- 26A. RomagnoliD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 80A. SoriaM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 8GuilhermeM
- 77M. BrozovićM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 9Roberto FirminoF
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
- 23Hashim AliF
- 11GiovaniF
- 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
- 4M. CamaraM
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 32Karim Haider DibG
- 7Mohammed WaadM
- 31Jasem Al HailG
- 22K. BauobidaD
- 19Gueye LayeD
- 25A. PérezD
- 2Marwan HassanD
- 10RodriM
- 8Ahmed FathiM
- 17J. VeretoutM
- 80I. LihadjiM
- 7Pablo SarabiaF
- 6O. TannaneF
- 33Q. El HarounG
- 9Mohamed GoudaF
- 5SimoD
- 11Lotfi MadjerF
- 20A. MahajnaD
- 44Hassan MohamadM
- 98J. MonegalM
- 14M. OlungaF
- 30Salem Al HajriM
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
- W6-2away to Qatar SC28 August 2026
- W3-1Al Ahli Doha22 August 2026
Al-Arabi SC
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC29 August 2026
- D2-2Al Shamal21 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Sadd won every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Sadd scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Sadd conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
- 17 March 2026Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al SaddStars League
- 19 January 2026Al-Arabi SC 5–0 Al SaddQSL Cup
- 25 October 2025Al Sadd 1–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 January 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–3 Al SaddStars League
- 22 August 2024Al Sadd 5–0 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 10 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al SaddStars League
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Arabi SC
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Firmino42
- Akram Afif32
- Y. Abdurisag12
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia30
- O. Tannane22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.