Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Wakrah 3-2 Al-Gharafa.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Al Wakrah, 25% draw, 34% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Qatar Stars League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Wakrah at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Line-ups
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 14A. ZakyM
- 6Omar Al OsadM
- 7A. AssalM
- 18Luis AlbertoM
- 75A. ZouhzouhM
- 93A. LaïdouniF
- 22Yousef Mohammed RamadanG
- 15Almahdi AliD
- 20Nasser Al YazidiM
- 28Yousef El KhatibD
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 10Gelson DalaF
- 89Abdulaziz Abdulwahab OthmanG
- 66Mohamed SimoD
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 4S. SanoD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 29F. DíazM
- 13F. SassiM
- 96A. OunasM
- 10I. BennacerM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 9F. MagriF
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 90A. HassanF
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 31A. KoneG
- 5Mostafa EssamD
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 24Hamad KahioutG
Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
- L1-2Al-Rayyan SC27 August 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC20 August 2026
Al-Gharafa
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
- L1-3Al Shamal27 August 2026
- W2-1Al Shahaniya21 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Wakrah did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Wakrah conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Wakrah scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Gharafa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Gharafa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- A. Laïdouni20
- Gelson Dala20
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- F. Magri20
- Y. Brahimi20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.