Premyer Liqa

1. Neftchi Baku — 16 points from 7 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 18 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: L W W W D.
2. Sabah FA — 16 points from 6 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 14 scored, 1 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: W W W W D.
3. Qarabag — 16 points from 6 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 11 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W W D W W.
4. Turan — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 7 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L W D W W.
5. Zira — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L D L D.
6. Kapaz — 10 points from 6 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 6 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L W D W.
7. Şamaxı FK — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 9 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D W D W D.
8. Sumqayıt — 5 points from 6 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L L D D W.
9. Qabala — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 3 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D W L L L.
10. Imisli FK — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: W L L L L.
11. Safa Baku — 3 points from 7 played (1 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost), 2 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.
12. Araz — 2 points from 7 played (0 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 5 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 6 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Neftchi Baku — chance of finishing top down 0.3, to 16.1%.
• Araz — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 63.1%.
• Kapaz — bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 22.6%.
• Qarabag — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 28.1%.
• Sabah FA — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 55.6%.

Season projection

Every one of the 158 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Relegation - Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Sabah FA — projected to finish on 77 points, from 16 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 55.6% (up 0.1), finishes top four 99.8%, bottom two 0%.
2. Qarabag — projected to finish on 72.6 points, from 16 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 28.1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 98.5%, bottom two 0%.
3. Neftchi Baku — projected to finish on 69.5 points, from 16 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 16.1% (down 0.3), finishes top four 97.5%, bottom two 0%.
4. Turan — projected to finish on 51.5 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 42.6%, bottom two 0.1%.
5. Zira — projected to finish on 50 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 37.3%, bottom two 0.8%.
6. Şamaxı FK — projected to finish on 44.7 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 15.3%, bottom two 1.7%.
7. Sumqayıt — projected to finish on 38.6 points, from 5 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 5.4%, bottom two 8%.
8. Kapaz — projected to finish on 36.9 points, from 10 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 2.9%, bottom two 11.3%.
9. Imisli FK — projected to finish on 30.3 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom two 32.1%.
10. Qabala — projected to finish on 28.5 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom two 42.4%.
11. Araz — projected to finish on 28 points, from 2 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom two 45.6%.
12. Safa Baku — projected to finish on 25.6 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom two 58.1%.

Top scorers

1. Oumar Diaw (Safa Baku) — 0 goals.