Wolves
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 1-3 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Wolves, 26% draw, 22% Bolton — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wolves 1.81, Bolton 1.02.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Wolves vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1José SáG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 7AndréM
- 8J. JamesM
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 36M. ManeM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 24Toti GomesD
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 19R. SaïdF
- 14S. NeaveF
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 33G. KonanD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 5L. BruntD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 11T. GaleM
- 9T. BairF
- 17A. ItoF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 6B. DaviesD
- 10S. DalbyF
- 25M. ConwayD
- 1J. BonhamG
- 35Max LottF
Form going into Wolves vs Bolton
Wolves
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
Bolton
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
What these results say
- Wolves scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Wolves had two goals or fewer.
- Bolton scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Bolton
- 13 October 2026Wolves 1–3 BoltonChampionship
- 21 April 2018Bolton 0–4 WolvesChampionship
- 25 November 2017Wolves 5–1 BoltonChampionship
- 2 February 2016Wolves 2–2 BoltonChampionship
- 12 September 2015Bolton 2–1 WolvesChampionship
- 31 January 2015Bolton 2–2 WolvesChampionship
Leading scorers: Wolves and Bolton
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López42
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.81 goals for Wolves and 1.02 for Bolton; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Atsuki Ito 28' (Bolton), Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 50' (Wolves), Sam Dalby 72' (Bolton), Josh Sheehan 82' (Bolton).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Wolves against 1.02 for Bolton. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.54 for Bolton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.