Millwall
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 0-1 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Millwall, 30% draw, 32% Swansea — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Millwall 1.24, Swansea 1.08.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Millwall vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs Swansea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34F. MarschallG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 17M. SykesM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 22K. LisbieM
- 13L. DykesF
- 25L. CundleM
- 45A. DoughtyM
- 16D. KellyM
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 12E. BaggottD
- 18R. LeonardD
- 4T. CramaD
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 3J. SeeltD
- 14J. TymonD
- 8E. JustM
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 49M. YeoF
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 30Joseph OkopuF
- 1A. FisherG
- 33A. IdahF
- 16Tom IorpendaM
- 35RonaldF
- 31R. StewartF
- 23S. WelshD
- 7M. WidellM
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
Form going into Millwall vs Swansea
Millwall
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
Swansea
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
What these results say
- Millwall scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Millwall failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Swansea scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Swansea conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Swansea
- 13 October 2026Millwall 0–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 4 January 2026Millwall 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 27 September 2025Swansea 1–1 MillwallChampionship
- 26 April 2025Millwall 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 26 October 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 4 May 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and Swansea
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
- C. Neghli32
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Millwall and 1.08 for Swansea; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ronald Pereira Martins 90' (Swansea).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Millwall against 1.08 for Swansea. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.07 for Swansea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.