Burnley
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 2-2 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Burnley, 27% draw, 19% Charlton — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Burnley 1.64, Charlton 0.76.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Burnley vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 54% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Charlton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 9J. VardyF
- 1M. WeißG
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 22O. SonneD
- 14C. RobertsD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 2K. RamsayD
- 5L. JonesD
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 17A. BellD
- 34O. SkippM
- 6C. CoventryM
- 20D. McNamaraM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 18I. MesíkD
- 33Micah MbickF
- 25W. MannionG
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 14S. CareyM
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 19M. AlliF
- 32A. MwambaD
- 23C. KelmanF
Form going into Burnley vs Charlton
Burnley
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
Charlton
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Charlton did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Charlton had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Charlton
- 13 October 2026Burnley 2–2 CharltonChampionship
- 7 May 2016Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 19 December 2015Burnley 4–0 CharltonChampionship
- 22 March 2014Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 28 September 2013Burnley 3–0 CharltonChampionship
- 2 March 2013Charlton 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
Leading scorers: Burnley and Charlton
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for Burnley and 0.76 for Charlton; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jacob Bruun Larsen 36' (Burnley), Kayne Ramsay 50' (Charlton), Largie Ramazani 57' (Burnley), Ivan Mesik 90' (Charlton).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Burnley against 0.76 for Charlton. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.29 for Charlton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.