Stoke City
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Stoke City, 27% draw, 40% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.31, Middlesbrough 1.52.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonD
- 16B. WilmotD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 22J. TchamadeuM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 11L. CisséF
- 10Bae Jun-HoF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 13J. DevennyM
- 23B. GibsonD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 18B. LawalD
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 1R. VítekG
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 2C. BrittainM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 30Neto BorgesM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 16J. SarmientoM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 8R. McGreeM
- 22K. JosephF
- 9T. ConwayF
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 3S. ByramD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 18C. BarronM
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
Form going into Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Stoke City
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
Middlesbrough
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stoke City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
- 13 October 2026Stoke City 2–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 21 January 2026Stoke City 1–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 30 September 2025Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 25 February 2025Stoke City 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 28 September 2024Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 27 August 2024Middlesbrough 0–5 Stoke CityLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Middlesbrough
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- E. Galbraith32
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for Stoke City and 1.52 for Middlesbrough; the game produced 2 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Callum Brittain 48' (Middlesbrough), Neto Borges 50' (Stoke City), will lankshear 73' (Middlesbrough), Róbert Boženík 85' (Stoke City), Neto Borges 90' (Middlesbrough).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.52 for Middlesbrough. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.19 for Middlesbrough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.