Cardiff
vs
Watford
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 5-1 Watford.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Cardiff, 24% draw, 19% Watford — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Cardiff 2.01, Watford 0.94.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Cardiff vs Watford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 57% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Watford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 48D. LawlorD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 11O. TannerM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 16C. WillockM
- 8J. MoylanF
- 30H. TyrerG
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 47C. RobinsonF
- 43P. MorenoM
- 44R. KpakioD
- 2W. FishD
- 39I. DaviesF
- 50Charlie HoltM
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 23O. TraoréD
- 6M. PollockD
- 4K. KebenD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 22M. PayeroM
- 45S. MavididiM
- 10M. BoaduF
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 15K. DiattaM
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 17Iker BravoF
- 16M. BolaD
- 26D. BachmannG
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 21Amin NabizadaF
Form going into Cardiff vs Watford
Cardiff
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
Watford
- L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cardiff failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Watford conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Watford failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Watford had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Watford
- 13 October 2026Cardiff 5–1 WatfordChampionship
- 14 January 2025Cardiff 1–1 WatfordChampionship
- 29 December 2024Watford 1–2 CardiffChampionship
- 3 February 2024Watford 0–1 CardiffChampionship
- 7 October 2023Cardiff 1–1 WatfordChampionship
- 19 April 2023Watford 1–3 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Watford
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.01 goals for Cardiff and 0.94 for Watford; the game produced 5 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jack Moylan 11' (Cardiff), Jack Moylan 35' (Cardiff), Matthew Pollock 41' (Cardiff), Ollie·Tanner 45' (Cardiff), Callum Robinson 85' (Cardiff), Hector Kyprianou 87' (Watford).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cardiff the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Cardiff against 0.94 for Watford. Cardiff's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.64 for Watford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.