Bristol City
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 0-1 Blackburn.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bristol City, 30% draw, 32% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bristol City 1.21, Blackburn 1.05.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Bristol City vs Blackburn
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bristol City at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Blackburn
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 2L. EissatD
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 3C. PringD
- 12J. KnightM
- 27G. YahM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 10S. TwineM
- 23D. BallardF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 11S. BellF
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 40B. CollinsG
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 15L. McNallyD
- 4A. RandellM
- 22B. TóthG
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 17H. CarterD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 2R. AlebiosuM
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 3H. PickeringM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 10T. CantwellF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 29M. JørgensenF
- 7A. KargboF
- 1A. PearsG
- 11J. FevrierF
- 14D. De NeveM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 24M. BaradjiM
Form going into Bristol City vs Blackburn
Bristol City
- D1-1away to Charlton10 October 2026
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
Blackburn
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
What these results say
- Bristol City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Blackburn
- 13 October 2026Bristol City 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 24 February 2026Blackburn 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 4 November 2025Bristol City 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 25 January 2025Bristol City 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 14 September 2024Blackburn 3–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 10 April 2024Bristol City 5–0 BlackburnChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Blackburn
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- O. Afolayan42
- A. Guðjohnsen41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for Bristol City and 1.05 for Blackburn; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Oladapo Afolayan 38' (Blackburn).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bristol City the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bristol City against 1.05 for Blackburn. Bristol City's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.23 for Blackburn.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.