Wrexham
vs
Preston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wrexham 1–0 Preston
The model makes it 53% Wrexham, 26% draw, 21% Preston — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.83, Preston 0.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Wrexham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wrexham are 17th on 11 points from 10 games; Preston are bottom on 4 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to West Brom.
- Preston have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Last 3 meetings: Wrexham 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Wrexham 2–1 Preston.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wrexham vs Preston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 53% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wrexham vs Preston
Wrexham
- L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
Preston
- L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Wrexham vs Preston
Wrexham
- B. Sheafinjury
- G. Thomasonthigh injury
- L. Cacacecalf injury
- M. Cleworthmuscle injury
- N. Broadheadthigh injury
- M. Jamesback injuryDoubtful
- S. Revanhamstring injuryDoubtful
Preston
- A. McCannhamstring injury
- B. Pottsankle injury
- S. Millssuspended (red card)
- C. WileyinactiveDoubtful
- H. ClarkeinactiveDoubtful
- J. KennyinactiveDoubtful
- T. Carrollankle injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wrexham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Preston
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 80% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Preston
- 29 December 2025Wrexham 2–1 PrestonChampionship
- 6 December 2025Preston 1–1 WrexhamChampionship
- 26 August 2025Preston 2–3 WrexhamLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Preston
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.31 for Preston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Wrexham and 0.96 for Preston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 0.72 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Preston rate 0.57 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wrexham a 0.4% chance of the title and Preston 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Wrexham against 0.96 for Preston. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for Preston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wrexham at home · Preston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WrexhamPreston
Wrexham are 16th after 10 Championship matches (between 10th and 16th so far); Preston are 24th after 10 (between 21st and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wrexham 10, Preston 10.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Preston have let in 3 there.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Wrexham have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wrexham
- at Blackburn24 Oct · Championshipwin 29%
- at Sheffield Utd30 Oct · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Middlesbrough4 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Wolves7 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Lincoln21 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Preston
- vs West Brom24 Oct · Championshipwin 29%
- at Stoke City31 Oct · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Sheffield Utd3 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Southampton7 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
- at West Ham21 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.