Watford
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 0–1 Charlton
The model makes it 33% Watford, 32% draw, 35% Charlton — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Watford 1.03, Charlton 1.08.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Watford and Charlton are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Watford are 22nd on 8 points from 10 games; Charlton are 13th on 14 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Watford are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Burnley.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Watford 1–1 Charlton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Watford vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlton at 35% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Watford vs Charlton
Watford
- L1-5away to Cardiff13 October 2026
- L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
Charlton
- D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
What these results say
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had three goals or more.
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Watford vs Charlton
Watford
- E. Boveknee injury
- K. Baahknock
- J. Ngakiathigh injuryDoubtful
- M. AntonioinactiveDoubtful
- T. Akomeahlacking match fitnessDoubtful
Charlton
- C. Sichenjeknee injury
- M. Goddenmuscle injury
- N. Chalobahmuscle injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Watford
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 70% today
Charlton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Watford vs Charlton
- 6 April 2026Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 9 August 2025Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 17 January 2015Watford 5–0 CharltonChampionship
- 13 September 2014Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 29 April 2014Charlton 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 14 September 2013Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Charlton
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Watford carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.44 for Charlton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Watford and 1.08 for Charlton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 0.53 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlton rate 0.55 and 1.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Watford against 1.08 for Charlton. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.29 for Charlton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Watford at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WatfordCharlton
Watford are 21st after 10 Championship matches (between 6th and 21st so far); Charlton are 11th after 10 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Watford 10, Charlton 10.
Charlton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Watford have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Watford
- at Wolves24 Oct · Championshipwin 15%
- at Norwich31 Oct · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Lincoln3 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Middlesbrough7 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- at Sheffield Utd21 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Charlton
- vs Norwich24 Oct · Championshipwin 34%
- at Middlesbrough31 Oct · Championshipwin 19%
- vs Bolton3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Sheffield Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Wolves21 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.