Southampton
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 2–1 Bolton
The model makes it 60% Southampton, 22% draw, 18% Bolton — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Southampton 2.28, Bolton 1.00.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Southampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Southampton are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Bolton are 14th on 13 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Southampton have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Norwich.
- Bolton have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Wolves.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Southampton vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Southampton vs Bolton
Southampton
- W1-0away to Norwich14 October 2026
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
Bolton
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Southampton vs Bolton
Southampton
No absences reported.
Bolton
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 16 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Southampton
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
Bolton
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Southampton and Bolton
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.51 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Southampton and 1.00 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 0.98 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.77 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 25.8% chance of the title and Bolton 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Southampton against 1.00 for Bolton. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.54 for Bolton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Southampton at home · Bolton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SouthamptonBolton
Southampton are 6th after 10 Championship matches (between 6th and 24th so far); Bolton are 12th after 10 (between 1st and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Southampton 10, Bolton 10.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bolton have let in 6 there.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Southampton have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Southampton
- at West Ham24 Oct · Championshipwin 31%
- vs QPR31 Oct · Championshipwin 54%
- at West Brom3 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Preston7 Nov · Championshipwin 56%
- vs Derby21 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
Bolton
- vs Middlesbrough23 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Bristol City31 Oct · Championshipwin 44%
- at Charlton3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Derby6 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Portsmouth21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.