West Brom
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Brom 1–0 Blackburn
The model makes it 40% West Brom, 32% draw, 28% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: West Brom 1.13, Blackburn 0.87.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- West Brom are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Blackburn are 9th on 15 points from 10 games — Championship.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Wrexham.
- Blackburn are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Blackburn 0–0 West Brom.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Brom vs Blackburn
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into West Brom vs Blackburn
West Brom
- W2-1away to Wrexham13 October 2026
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
Blackburn
- W1-0away to Bristol City13 October 2026
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
What these results say
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for West Brom vs Blackburn
West Brom
- M. Johnstonbroken leg
- N. Galvesknee injury
Blackburn
- A. Forshawhip injury
- L. Millerachilles tendon injury
- M. Litherlandmuscle injury
- Y. Ohashihamstring injury
- Y. Ribeirohamstring injury
- S. Whartonachilles tendon injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Blackburn
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Blackburn
- 6 April 2026Blackburn 0–0 West BromChampionship
- 9 August 2025West Brom 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 12 February 2025West Brom 0–2 BlackburnChampionship
- 23 October 2024Blackburn 0–0 West BromChampionship
- 13 January 2024West Brom 4–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 5 August 2023Blackburn 2–1 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and Blackburn
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- O. Afolayan42
- A. Guðjohnsen41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.54 for Blackburn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for West Brom and 0.87 for Blackburn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 0.61 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackburn rate 0.65 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 1.4% chance of the title and Blackburn 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for West Brom against 0.87 for Blackburn. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.23 for Blackburn.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
West Brom at home · Blackburn away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
West BromBlackburn
West Brom are 3rd after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Blackburn are 5th after 10 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Brom 10, Blackburn 10.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
West Brom
- at Preston24 Oct · Championshipwin 40%
- at West Ham31 Oct · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Southampton3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Millwall7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- at Swansea21 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
Blackburn
- vs Wrexham24 Oct · Championshipwin 42%
- at Swansea31 Oct · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Stoke City3 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs West Ham7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at Burnley22 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.