Colchester
vs
Exeter City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Colchester 1–0 Exeter City
The model makes it 36% Colchester, 29% draw, 35% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colchester 1.28, Exeter City 1.25.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Colchester and Exeter City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Colchester are 19th on 10 points from 9 games; Exeter City are 14th on 12 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Colchester have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Newport County.
- Exeter City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Shrewsbury.
- Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 April 2022, ended Exeter City 2–0 Colchester.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colchester vs Exeter City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colchester at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Colchester vs Exeter City
Colchester
- L0-1away to Newport County10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
Exeter City
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
What these results say
- Colchester did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Colchester conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colchester scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Colchester
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Exeter City
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Colchester vs Exeter City
- 15 April 2022Exeter City 2–0 ColchesterLeague Two
- 23 November 2021Colchester 3–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 23 February 2021Colchester 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 24 November 2020Exeter City 6–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 22 June 2020Exeter City 3–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 18 June 2020Colchester 1–0 Exeter CityLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colchester carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.21 for Exeter City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Colchester and 1.25 for Exeter City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colchester rate 0.47 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Exeter City rate 0.52 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Exeter City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colchester a 1.4% chance of the title and Exeter City 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Colchester against 1.25 for Exeter City. Colchester's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.88 for Exeter City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Colchester at home · Exeter City away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Colchester 9, Exeter City 10.
Colchester score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Exeter City have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Colchester
- at Chesterfield20 Oct · League Twowin 26%
- at Northampton24 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- vs Walsall31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- vs Gillingham14 Nov · League Twowin 42%
Exeter City
- vs Crewe20 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs Fleetwood Town24 Oct · League Twowin 45%
- at Salford City31 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Cheltenham14 Nov · League Twowin 50%
- at Oldham21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.