Swindon Town
vs
Walsall
League Two prediction
Our model says: Swindon Town 0–1 Walsall
The model makes it 35% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 37% Walsall — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.28, Walsall 1.32.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Swindon Town and Walsall are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Swindon Town are 17th on 11 points from 10 games; Walsall are 6th on 15 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Swindon Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Crewe.
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fleetwood Town.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Swindon Town 2–1 Walsall.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Walsall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Walsall at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Swindon Town vs Walsall
Swindon Town
- L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
Walsall
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Walsall had two goals or fewer.
- Walsall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Swindon Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Walsall
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Walsall
- 6 April 2026Swindon Town 2–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 2 August 2025Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 1 March 2025Walsall 0–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 17 August 2024Swindon Town 0–4 WalsallLeague Two
- 16 April 2024Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 16 September 2023Swindon Town 2–0 WalsallLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Walsall
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.18 for Walsall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Swindon Town and 1.32 for Walsall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swindon Town rate 0.47 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Walsall rate 0.49 and 1.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.1% chance of the title and Walsall 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Walsall the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.32 for Walsall. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.87 for Walsall.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Swindon Town at home · Walsall away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Swindon Town 10, Walsall 9.
Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
Walsall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Swindon Town have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Swindon Town
- at Barnet20 Oct · League Twowin 20%
- at Bristol Rovers24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Rotherham31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- vs Grimsby14 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Newport County21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
Walsall
- vs Oldham20 Oct · League Twowin 43%
- vs Salford City26 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- at Colchester31 Oct · League Twowin 34%
- vs Barnet14 Nov · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.