Bournemouth
vs
Sunderland
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland
The model makes it 45% Bournemouth, 26% draw, 29% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.67, Sunderland 1.24.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6 games; Sunderland are 17th on 4 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chelsea.
- Sunderland are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Brighton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 45% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Bournemouth
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
Sunderland
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
What these results say
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Bournemouth
- A. Scottthigh injury
- E. J. Kroupifoot injury
- J. Araujothigh injury
- V. Milosavljevicinjury
- A. Adlicalf injuryDoubtful
- J. Kluivertmuscle injuryDoubtful
Sunderland
- D. Ballardmuscle injury
- H. Diarrahamstring injury
- R. Mundleknee injury
- T. Meuniermuscle injury
- B. Brobbeymuscle injuryDoubtful
- W. IsidorinactiveDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bournemouth
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Sunderland
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
- 28 February 2026Bournemouth 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 29 November 2025Sunderland 3–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 29 April 2017Sunderland 0–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 5 November 2016Bournemouth 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
- 23 January 2016Sunderland 1–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 19 September 2015Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandPremier League
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Sunderland
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier30
Sunderland
GoalsAssists
- B. Brobbey30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.78 for Sunderland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Bournemouth and 1.24 for Sunderland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.03 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sunderland rate 0.88 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sunderland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.24 for Sunderland. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.01 for Sunderland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Sunderland away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BournemouthSunderland
Bournemouth are 17th after 6 Premier League matches (between 12th and 17th so far); Sunderland are 16th after 6 (between 10th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bournemouth 6, Sunderland 6.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Bournemouth have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- vs AC Milan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 31%
- at Manchester United25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Aston Villa28 Oct · League Cupwin 39%
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sparta Praha5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Sunderland
- at Lech Poznan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
- vs Leeds25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Brentford28 Oct · League Cupwin 33%
- at Coventry31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.