Celtic
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Celtic 2–1 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 52% Celtic, 24% draw, 24% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celtic 2.04, Heart of Midlothian 1.21.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Celtic: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celtic are top on 21 points from 8 games; Heart of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Motherwell.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to St Mirren.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Celtic 3–1 Heart of Midlothian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
Celtic
- W2-0away to Motherwell11 October 2026
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
What these results say
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Celtic
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 66% today
Heart of Midlothian
Chance to finish top of the regular season
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
- 16 May 2026Celtic 3–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–2 CelticPremiership
- 7 December 2025Celtic 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 CelticPremiership
- 29 March 2025Celtic 3–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 23 November 2024Heart of Midlothian 1–4 CelticPremiership
Leading scorers: Celtic and Heart of Midlothian
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán43
- B. Nygren43
- K. Høgh31
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake34
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.66 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Celtic and 1.21 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.96 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.87 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celtic a 65.8% chance of the title and Heart of Midlothian 11.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Celtic against 1.21 for Heart of Midlothian. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.27 for Heart of Midlothian.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celtic at home · Heart of Midlothian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CelticHeart of Midlothian
Celtic are 1st after 8 Premiership matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Heart of Midlothian are 2nd after 8 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Celtic 8, Heart of Midlothian 8.
Celtic score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Heart of Midlothian have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- vs Celta Vigo22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
- at Hibernian25 Oct · Premiershipwin 51%
- vs Dundee United28 Oct · Premiershipwin 70%
- at Falkirk31 Oct · Premiershipwin 57%
Heart of Midlothian
- at Trabzonspor22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 16%
- at Motherwell25 Oct · Premiershipwin 42%
- vs Rangers28 Oct · Premiershipwin 42%
- at Dundee United31 Oct · Premiershipwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.