Hibernian
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Hibernian 2–1 Falkirk
The model makes it 48% Hibernian, 26% draw, 26% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.78, Falkirk 1.18.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hibernian are 10th on 7 points from 8 games; Falkirk are 11th on 6 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Hibernian have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dundee United.
- Falkirk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Dundee.
- Last 6 meetings: Hibernian 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Falkirk 1–3 Hibernian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hibernian vs Falkirk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hibernian vs Falkirk
Hibernian
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
- D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
Falkirk
- L1-2Dundee10 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hibernian
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Falkirk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Falkirk
- 9 May 2026Falkirk 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 24 January 2026Falkirk 4–1 HibernianPremiership
- 6 December 2025Hibernian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 23 September 2025Falkirk 2–2 HibernianPremiership
- 12 July 2022Falkirk 1–0 HibernianLeague Cup
- 25 March 2017Hibernian 2–1 FalkirkChampionship
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Falkirk
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- M. Boyle30
- C. Wright20
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.33 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Hibernian and 1.18 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.61 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.61 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.18 for Falkirk. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.74 for Falkirk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hibernian at home · Falkirk away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
HibernianFalkirk
Hibernian are 10th after 8 Premiership matches (between 5th and 11th so far); Falkirk are 11th after 8 (between 9th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Hibernian 8, Falkirk 8.
Falkirk score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Hibernian have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hibernian
- vs Celtic25 Oct · Premiershipwin 24%
- at St Mirren28 Oct · Premiershipwin 40%
- vs Dundee31 Oct · Premiershipwin 44%
- at Aberdeen7 Nov · Premiershipwin 34%
- vs Dundee United21 Nov · Premiershipwin 47%
Falkirk
- vs Kilmarnock24 Oct · Premiershipwin 50%
- at Aberdeen28 Oct · Premiershipwin 30%
- vs Celtic31 Oct · Premiershipwin 20%
- at Heart of Midlothian8 Nov · Premiershipwin 15%
- vs St Johnstone21 Nov · Premiershipwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.