Bnei Sakhnin
vs
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Bnei Sakhnin 0–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva
The model makes it 29% Bnei Sakhnin, 34% draw, 37% Hapoel Petah Tikva — fair odds of 3.45, 2.94 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bnei Sakhnin 0.81, Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.97.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Hapoel Petah Tikva: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bnei Sakhnin are 10th on 5 points from 6 games; Hapoel Petah Tikva are 11th on 4 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Bnei Sakhnin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Maccabi Netanya.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Petah Tikva at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Bnei Sakhnin
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Ramat Gan19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hapoel Haifa14 September 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv18 September 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Jerusalem29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bnei Sakhnin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bnei Sakhnin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 15 August 2026Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Hapoel Petah TikvaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 7 February 2026Bnei Sakhnin 1–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 1 November 2025Hapoel Petah Tikva 2–2 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 6 January 2024Bnei Sakhnin 0–0 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 2 September 2023Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 21 February 2020Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Bnei SakhninLiga Leumit
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bnei Sakhnin carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.28 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 0.97 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.34 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.46 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bnei Sakhnin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Petah Tikva the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin against 0.97 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Bnei Sakhnin's attack/defence rating is 0.34/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.5 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bnei Sakhnin at home · Hapoel Petah Tikva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Bnei Sakhnin 6, Hapoel Petah Tikva 6.
Hapoel Petah Tikva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Bnei Sakhnin have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bnei Sakhnin
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 26%
- vs Ironi Tiberias31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 28%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 27%
- vs Maccabi Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 17%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 13%
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- vs Beitar Jerusalem24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 23%
- at Hapoel Haifa31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 28%
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 45%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 14%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.