Maccabi Netanya
vs
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
The model makes it 46% Maccabi Netanya, 25% draw, 29% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.95, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.43.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Netanya are 8th on 6 points from 6 games; Ironi Kiryat Shmona are 12th on 3 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Netanya are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Hapoel Petah Tikva.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Netanya 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 April 2026, ended Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi Netanya.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Netanya at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya
- D1-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Ramat Gan14 September 2026
- D1-1Hapoel Haifa7 September 2026
- W4-1away to Beitar Jerusalem29 August 2026
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Netanya conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Netanya
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 29 April 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 7 February 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 2 November 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 16 August 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 5 January 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 21 September 2024Maccabi Netanya 2–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Netanya
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Davó40
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maccabi Netanya carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.26 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.43 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Netanya rate 0.64 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.58 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Netanya a 0.1% chance of the title and Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Netanya the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Maccabi Netanya against 1.43 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Maccabi Netanya's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.91 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Netanya at home · Ironi Kiryat Shmona away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Netanya 6, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 6.
Maccabi Netanya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ironi Kiryat Shmona have let in 5 there.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Maccabi Netanya have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Netanya
- at Ironi Tiberias24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 46%
- at Maccabi Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 21%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
- at Hapoel Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 20%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- vs Bnei Sakhnin24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 44%
- at Beitar Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- vs Hapoel Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- vs Maccabi Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.