Maccabi Petah Tikva
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
The model makes it 19% Maccabi Petah Tikva, 20% draw, 61% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 5.26, 5.00 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.38, Maccabi Haifa 2.80.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Maccabi Haifa are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Petah Tikva are 9th on 6 points from 6 games; Maccabi Haifa are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Hapoel Haifa.
- Maccabi Haifa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Hapoel Jerusalem.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Haifa 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Maccabi Haifa 1–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026
- L2-4Hapoel Jerusalem19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
- L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bnei Sakhnin29 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W4-1away to Hapoel Jerusalem12 October 2026
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Petah Tikva had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
Maccabi Haifa
Chance to finish in the top four · 84% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa
- 22 February 2025Maccabi Haifa 1–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 30 November 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 14 January 2024Maccabi Haifa 5–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 17 September 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 3–2 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 19 August 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–2 Maccabi HaifaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 8 January 2022Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–4 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Petah Tikva and Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés21
- S. Owusu21
- L. Hazan21
Maccabi Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Novaković41
- Bruninho34
- Pedro Brazão22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maccabi Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.62 for Maccabi Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 2.80 for Maccabi Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Petah Tikva rate 0.60 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Haifa rate 0.90 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Petah Tikva a 0% chance of the title and Maccabi Haifa 14.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva against 2.80 for Maccabi Haifa. Maccabi Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.44 for Maccabi Haifa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Petah Tikva at home · Maccabi Haifa away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Petah Tikva 6, Maccabi Haifa 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 11%
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
Maccabi Haifa
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Hapoel Tel Aviv31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- vs Maccabi Netanya7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 57%
- at Bnei Sakhnin28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 59%
- vs Beitar Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.