Baltika
vs
FC Rostov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baltika 1–0 FC Rostov
The model makes it 50% Baltika, 28% draw, 22% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Baltika 1.59, FC Rostov 0.86.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Baltika: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Baltika are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; FC Rostov are 12th on 11 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Baltika are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Akhmat.
- FC Rostov have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Akron.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended FC Rostov 1–1 Baltika.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baltika vs FC Rostov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Baltika vs FC Rostov
Baltika
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
FC Rostov
- W1-0Akron9 October 2026
- L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
What these results say
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Baltika
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
FC Rostov
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Baltika vs FC Rostov
- 7 March 2026FC Rostov 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 21 September 2025Baltika 0–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 19 May 2024FC Rostov 2–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 2 May 2024FC Rostov 0–1 BaltikaCup
- 16 September 2023Baltika 2–2 FC RostovPremier League
Leading scorers: Baltika and FC Rostov
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Baltika carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.14 for FC Rostov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Baltika and 0.86 for FC Rostov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baltika rate 0.55 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Rostov rate 0.45 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baltika a 0.3% chance of the title and FC Rostov 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Baltika against 0.86 for FC Rostov. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.88 for FC Rostov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baltika at home · FC Rostov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baltika 10, FC Rostov 10.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Rostov have let in 7 there.
FC Rostov score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Baltika have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Baltika
- at FC Krasnodar24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Akron1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at FC Orenburg21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Akhmat28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
FC Rostov
- vs Lokomotiv25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Zenit8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
- vs Krylia Sovetov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs FC Krasnodar29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.