Sturm Graz
vs
Grazer AK
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Sturm Graz 1–0 Grazer AK
The model makes it 59% Sturm Graz, 25% draw, 16% Grazer AK — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.89, Grazer AK 0.75.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sturm Graz are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sturm Graz are 4th on 14 points from 8 games; Grazer AK are 7th on 9 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Austria Vienna.
- Grazer AK are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Sturm Graz 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 December 2025, ended Sturm Graz 2–1 Grazer AK.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 59% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
Grazer AK
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sturm Graz
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Grazer AK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
- 7 December 2025Sturm Graz 2–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 30 August 2025Grazer AK 0–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 9 March 2025Grazer AK 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 19 October 2024Sturm Graz 5–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 November 2023Grazer AK 2–3 Sturm GrazCup
- 19 October 2022Grazer AK 0–1 Sturm GrazCup
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Grazer AK
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.3 for Grazer AK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.75 for Grazer AK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.72 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grazer AK rate 0.54 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sturm Graz a 4.3% chance of the title and Grazer AK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 0.75 for Grazer AK. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.62 for Grazer AK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sturm Graz at home · Grazer AK away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sturm GrazGrazer AK
Sturm Graz are 4th after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Grazer AK are 5th after 8 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Sturm Graz 8, Grazer AK 8.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Grazer AK have let in 2 there.
Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sturm Graz
- vs Marseille22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Ried25 Oct · Bundesligawin 55%
- at Wolfsberger AC1 Nov · Bundesligawin 51%
- vs Celje5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
Grazer AK
- at WSG Wattens24 Oct · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs TSV Hartberg30 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- at Austria Lustenau7 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Rapid Vienna21 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- vs SCR Altach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.