Universitatea Craiova
vs
Farul Constanta
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul Constanta
The model makes it 66% Universitatea Craiova, 21% draw, 13% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.23, Farul Constanta 0.69.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games; Farul Constanta are 6th on 17 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Csikszereda.
- Farul Constanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Last 6 meetings: Farul Constanta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Farul Constanta 4–1 Universitatea Craiova.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
Farul Constanta
- W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 23 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universitatea Craiova
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 40% today
Farul Constanta
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta
- 1 February 2026Farul Constanta 4–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 14 September 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 1 March 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 28 October 2024Farul Constanta 3–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 13 May 2024Farul Constanta 3–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 12 April 2024Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor60
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
Farul Constanta
GoalsAssists
- E. Rădăslăvescu53
- M. Ahlinvi41
- Iustin Doicaru31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.37 for Farul Constanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.69 for Farul Constanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.89 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farul Constanta rate 0.64 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Craiova a 39.7% chance of the title and Farul Constanta 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.69 for Farul Constanta. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.67 for Farul Constanta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitatea Craiova at home · Farul Constanta away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Universitatea CraiovaFarul Constanta
Universitatea Craiova are 2nd after 11 Liga I matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Farul Constanta are 6th after 11 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Universitatea Craiova 11, Farul Constanta 11.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Farul Constanta have let in 4 there.
Farul Constanta score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Craiova
- at Inter Club d'Escaldes22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 52%
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe24 Oct · Liga Iwin 53%
- vs FC Botosani31 Oct · Liga Iwin 64%
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 76%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj7 Nov · Liga Iwin 43%
Farul Constanta
- vs Oțelul24 Oct · Liga Iwin 46%
- at FC Voluntari31 Oct · Liga Iwin 38%
- vs Rapid7 Nov · Liga Iwin 31%
- vs Universitatea Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 36%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara28 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.