Oțelul
vs
Csikszereda
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Oțelul 1–0 Csikszereda
The model makes it 56% Oțelul, 25% draw, 19% Csikszereda — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Oțelul 1.82, Csikszereda 0.83.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Oțelul: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Oțelul are 14th on 10 points from 11 games; Csikszereda are bottom on 1 point from 11 games — Liga I.
- Oțelul have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FCSB.
- Csikszereda have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Universitatea Craiova.
- Last 6 meetings: Oțelul 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Oțelul 2–3 Csikszereda.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oțelul vs Csikszereda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 56% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oțelul vs Csikszereda
Oțelul
- L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
Csikszereda
- L0-1Universitatea Craiova11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 September 2026
- L1-3Dinamo Bucuresti11 September 2026
- L1-5away to Uta Arad5 September 2026
- L2-3CFR 1907 Cluj29 August 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Csikszereda did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Csikszereda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Oțelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oțelul
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Csikszereda
- 14 March 2026Oțelul 2–3 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 26 January 2026Oțelul 3–0 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 2 December 2025Csikszereda 1–2 OțelulCupa României
- 1 September 2025Csikszereda 1–1 OțelulLiga I
- 30 October 2024Csikszereda 2–1 OțelulCupa României
- 3 March 2023Oțelul 1–0 CsikszeredaLiga II
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Csikszereda
Oțelul
GoalsAssists
- Patrick40
Csikszereda
GoalsAssists
- M. Eppel40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.1 for Csikszereda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Oțelul and 0.83 for Csikszereda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 0.60 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Csikszereda rate 0.45 and 2.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Oțelul against 0.83 for Csikszereda. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.02 for Csikszereda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oțelul at home · Csikszereda away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OțelulCsikszereda
Oțelul are 14th after 11 Liga I matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Csikszereda are 16th after 11 (between 15th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Oțelul 11, Csikszereda 11.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Csikszereda have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Oțelul
- at Farul Constanta24 Oct · Liga Iwin 27%
- vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe31 Oct · Liga Iwin 45%
- at FC Botosani7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 22%
- vs Uta Arad28 Nov · Liga Iwin 42%
Csikszereda
- vs FC Voluntari24 Oct · Liga Iwin 39%
- at Rapid31 Oct · Liga Iwin 10%
- vs Universitatea Cluj7 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
- vs Corvinul Hunedoara21 Nov · Liga Iwin 27%
- at FCSB28 Nov · Liga Iwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.