Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
The model makes it 44% Petrolul Ploiesti, 32% draw, 24% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 1.22, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.76.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 19 points from 11 games; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 11th on 13 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Petrolul Ploiesti have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Farul Constanta.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Bucuresti.
- Last 6 meetings: Petrolul Ploiesti 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 October 2025, ended Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–2 Petrolul Ploiesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Petrolul Ploiesti at 44% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 September 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti29 August 2026
What these results say
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Petrolul Ploiesti
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 11 October 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–2 Petrolul PloiestiFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 8 March 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 2 November 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 8 March 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 7 December 2023Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Petrolul Ploiesti carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.27 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.76 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.56 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.43 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Petrolul Ploiesti a 0.2% chance of the title and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Petrolul Ploiesti the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 0.76 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.46 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Petrolul Ploiesti at home · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Petrolul PloiestiSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th after 11 Liga I matches (between 2nd and 13th so far); Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 9th after 11 (between 6th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Petrolul Ploiesti 11, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Petrolul Ploiesti
- at FC Botosani24 Oct · Liga Iwin 25%
- vs CFR 1907 Cluj31 Oct · Liga Iwin 34%
- at Uta Arad7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 14%
- vs Arges Pitesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 40%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- vs Universitatea Craiova24 Oct · Liga Iwin 18%
- at Oțelul31 Oct · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs FC Voluntari7 Nov · Liga Iwin 45%
- vs Rapid21 Nov · Liga Iwin 25%
- at Universitatea Cluj28 Nov · Liga Iwin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.