Universitatea Cluj
vs
Arges Pitesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 52% Universitatea Cluj, 29% draw, 19% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 1.92, 3.45 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Cluj 1.52, Arges Pitesti 0.71.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Universitatea Cluj: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitatea Cluj are 5th on 18 points from 11 games; Arges Pitesti are 13th on 11 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Universitatea Cluj have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Rapid.
- Arges Pitesti have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Cluj 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges Pitesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Cluj at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj
- L3-4Rapid12 October 2026
- W3-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj8 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
- W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
Arges Pitesti
- L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Universitatea Cluj had three goals or more.
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universitatea Cluj
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
Arges Pitesti
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
- 2 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 21 April 2026Arges Pitesti 1–1 Universitatea ClujCupa României
- 21 March 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 3 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 3–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 20 September 2025Arges Pitesti 1–0 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 20 March 2023Universitatea Cluj 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj
GoalsAssists
- A. Aliev62
- O. Mendy31
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universitatea Cluj carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.36 for Arges Pitesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Universitatea Cluj and 0.71 for Arges Pitesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Cluj rate 0.83 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arges Pitesti rate 0.41 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Cluj a 1.9% chance of the title and Arges Pitesti 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Cluj the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj against 0.71 for Arges Pitesti. Universitatea Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.22 for Arges Pitesti.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitatea Cluj at home · Arges Pitesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Universitatea ClujArges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj are 5th after 11 Liga I matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Arges Pitesti are 13th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Universitatea Cluj 11, Arges Pitesti 11.
Universitatea Cluj score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 3 there.
Arges Pitesti score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Universitatea Cluj have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Cluj
- at Corvinul Hunedoara24 Oct · Liga Iwin 34%
- vs FCSB31 Oct · Liga Iwin 52%
- at Csikszereda7 Nov · Liga Iwin 52%
- at Farul Constanta21 Nov · Liga Iwin 38%
- vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe28 Nov · Liga Iwin 58%
Arges Pitesti
- vs Uta Arad24 Oct · Liga Iwin 37%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara31 Oct · Liga Iwin 23%
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs FCSB21 Nov · Liga Iwin 35%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.