Leganes
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 2–1 Cordoba
The model makes it 37% Leganes, 28% draw, 35% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leganes 1.43, Cordoba 1.37.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Leganes and Cordoba are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leganes are 16th on 11 points from 9 games; Cordoba are 18th on 9 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Leganes are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Almeria.
- Cordoba have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Eldense.
- Last 2 meetings: Cordoba 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Cordoba 2–1 Leganes.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leganes vs Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leganes at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Cordoba
Leganes
- L0-3away to Almeria11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
Cordoba
- L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026
- W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
What these results say
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leganes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
Cordoba
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Cordoba
- 14 February 2026Cordoba 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 7 December 2025Leganes 0–0 CordobaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Cordoba
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leganes carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.43 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Leganes and 1.37 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leganes rate 0.50 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 0.77 and 1.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leganes the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Leganes against 1.37 for Cordoba. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.85 for Cordoba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leganes at home · Cordoba away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LeganesCordoba
Leganes are 15th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 15th so far); Cordoba are 16th after 9 (between 8th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Leganes 9, Cordoba 9.
Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Leganes have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leganes
- vs Mallorca24 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
- at Valladolid1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Albacete8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Burgos15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- at FC Andorra22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
Cordoba
- vs Eibar24 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- at Celta de Vigo II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs AD Ceuta FC8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Mallorca15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 16%
- vs Oviedo22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.