Valladolid
vs
Eldense
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Valladolid 1–0 Eldense
The model makes it 40% Valladolid, 29% draw, 31% Eldense — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.37, Eldense 1.15.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Valladolid are 11th on 12 points from 9 games; Eldense are 14th on 11 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Valladolid are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Albacete.
- Eldense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cordoba.
- Last 2 meetings: Valladolid 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2024, ended Valladolid 1–0 Eldense.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valladolid vs Eldense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valladolid at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Eldense
Valladolid
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
Eldense
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
- W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Eldense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Valladolid
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Eldense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Eldense
- 13 April 2024Valladolid 1–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 4 October 2023Eldense 0–1 ValladolidSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Eldense
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio31
- Juanmi Latasa30
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.51 for Eldense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Valladolid and 1.15 for Eldense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valladolid rate 0.66 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eldense rate 0.68 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valladolid a 0.2% chance of the title and Eldense 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valladolid the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.15 for Eldense. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.35 for Eldense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valladolid at home · Eldense away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ValladolidEldense
Valladolid are 9th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 9th and 21st so far); Eldense are 12th after 9 (between 12th and 21st). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Valladolid 9, Eldense 9.
Valladolid score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Eldense have let in 3 there.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Valladolid have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Valladolid
- at Granada CF23 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Leganes1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Sporting Gijon8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Castellón15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- at Celta de Vigo II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Eldense
- at Albacete25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Granada CF1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Las Palmas8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Sabadell15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Castellón22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.