Malaga
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Malaga 0–1 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 26% Malaga, 27% draw, 47% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.06, Real Sociedad 1.62.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Real Sociedad are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Malaga are bottom on 4 points from 8 games; Real Sociedad are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 January 2024, ended Malaga 0–1 Real Sociedad.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 47% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Malaga
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
Real Sociedad
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Malaga had two goals or fewer.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Malaga
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 77% today
Real Sociedad
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
- 7 January 2024Malaga 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 22 April 2018Malaga 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 December 2017Real Sociedad 0–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 14 May 2017Real Sociedad 2–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 16 January 2017Malaga 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 27 February 2016Real Sociedad 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Real Sociedad
Malaga
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.91 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Malaga and 1.62 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.59 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.23 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Malaga against 1.62 for Real Sociedad. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.11 for Real Sociedad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malaga at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MalagaReal Sociedad
Malaga are 19th after 8 La Liga matches (between 16th and 20th so far); Real Sociedad are 6th after 8 (between 6th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Malaga 8, Real Sociedad 8.
Malaga score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Malaga have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Malaga
- at Alaves23 Oct · La Ligawin 18%
- at Real Betis31 Oct · La Ligawin 11%
- vs Racing Santander7 Nov · La Ligawin 39%
- at Osasuna22 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Athletic Club29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
Real Sociedad
- at Lillestrom22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 49%
- vs Levante25 Oct · La Ligawin 54%
- at Athletic Club1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Lyon5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 42%
- vs Rayo Vallecano8 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.