Burgos
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Sabadell
The model makes it 37% Burgos, 34% draw, 29% Sabadell — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Burgos 0.98, Sabadell 0.78.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Burgos are 8th on 14 points from 9 games; Sabadell are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Granada CF.
- Sabadell are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to AD Ceuta FC.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burgos vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Sabadell
Burgos
- L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
Sabadell
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burgos
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Sabadell
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Burgos and Sabadell
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
- David González31
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burgos carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.65 for Sabadell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Burgos and 0.78 for Sabadell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.62 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.65 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sabadell, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 1.4% chance of the title and Sabadell 3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Burgos against 0.78 for Sabadell. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.02 for Sabadell.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Sabadell away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BurgosSabadell
Burgos are 8th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Sabadell are 4th after 9 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 9, Sabadell 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- at FC Andorra26 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Castellón1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Celta de Vigo II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Leganes15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- vs Albacete22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
Sabadell
- vs Tenerife25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Albacete1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- vs Real Sociedad II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Eldense15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Granada CF22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.