Las Palmas
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Las Palmas 0–1 Castellón
The model makes it 32% Las Palmas, 28% draw, 40% Castellón — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.26, Castellón 1.48.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Castellón: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Las Palmas are 15th on 11 points from 9 games; Castellón are 3rd on 20 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Las Palmas are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Mallorca.
- Castellón have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Andorra.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Las Palmas 1–1 Castellón.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Las Palmas vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Las Palmas vs Castellón
Las Palmas
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
- D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
Castellón
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Castellón
Chance to finish in the top four · 63% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Castellón
- 21 February 2026Las Palmas 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 30 November 2025Castellón 1–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 27 February 2021Castellón 4–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 21 October 2020Las Palmas 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 17 December 2019Castellón 0–2 Las PalmasCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Castellón
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Ousmane Camara41
- Israel Suero32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Las Palmas carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.71 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Las Palmas and 1.48 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Las Palmas rate 0.75 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.83 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Las Palmas a 0.3% chance of the title and Castellón 18.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Las Palmas against 1.48 for Castellón. Las Palmas's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.09 for Castellón.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Las Palmas at home · Castellón away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Las PalmasCastellón
Las Palmas are 14th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Castellón are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Las Palmas 9, Castellón 9.
Castellón score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Las Palmas have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Las Palmas
- vs Real Sociedad II24 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
- at Oviedo1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Eldense8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Granada CF15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- at Sporting Gijon22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
Castellón
- vs Sporting Gijon25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Burgos1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Eibar8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Valladolid15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- vs Eldense22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.