Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Kolos Kovalivka
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka
The model makes it 74% Shakhtar Donetsk, 17% draw, 9% Kolos Kovalivka — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.66, Kolos Kovalivka 0.64.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 21 points from 8 games; Kolos Kovalivka are 9th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Veres Rivne.
- Kolos Kovalivka have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 74% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka
Shakhtar Donetsk
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Karpaty5 September 2026
- L0-2Polessya29 August 2026
Kolos Kovalivka
- W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026
- L0-2Karpaty11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kryvbas KR5 September 2026
- D0-0Obolon'-Brovar28 August 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 21 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 80% today
Kolos Kovalivka
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka
- 21 May 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 6 December 2025Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 19 April 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 2–4 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 18 October 2024Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 8 March 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 3–2 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 27 August 2023Kolos Kovalivka 0–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Pedrinho11
Kolos Kovalivka
GoalsAssists
- D. Ndukwe20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.38 for Kolos Kovalivka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.66 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.64 for Kolos Kovalivka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kolos Kovalivka rate 0.58 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 80.4% chance of the title and Kolos Kovalivka 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.64 for Kolos Kovalivka. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.5 for Kolos Kovalivka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Kolos Kovalivka away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 8, Kolos Kovalivka 7.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Kolos Kovalivka have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- at Inter21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 13%
- vs Zorya Luhansk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 75%
- at Obolon'-Brovar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 75%
- vs Sporting CP3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 61%
Kolos Kovalivka
- at Veres Rivne24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Polessya31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Bukovyna7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs FC Kharkiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.