Pafos
vs
Apoel Nicosia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Pafos 2–1 Apoel Nicosia
The model makes it 51% Pafos, 26% draw, 23% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pafos 1.83, Apoel Nicosia 1.04.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Pafos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pafos are 4th on 10 points from 5 games; Apoel Nicosia are 7th on 7 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Pafos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Anorthosis.
- Apoel Nicosia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Nea Salamis.
- Last 6 meetings: Pafos 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pafos at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia
Pafos
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026
Apoel Nicosia
- W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
- W6-0AEL6 September 2026
- L1-3away to AEK Larnaca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Apoel Nicosia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
- Apoel Nicosia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia
- 22 May 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 26 April 2026Apoel Nicosia 3–3 Pafos1. Division
- 4 February 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 31 August 2025Apoel Nicosia 0–1 Pafos1. Division
- 12 May 2025Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Pafos1. Division
- 6 April 2025Pafos 0–1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pafos carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.62 for Apoel Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Pafos and 1.04 for Apoel Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pafos rate 0.84 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Apoel Nicosia rate 0.84 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Pafos against 1.04 for Apoel Nicosia. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.34 for Apoel Nicosia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pafos at home · Apoel Nicosia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Pafos 5, Apoel Nicosia 5.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 1 there.
Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Pafos have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pafos
- vs Riga22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 79%
- at Nea Salamis26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- at Apollon Limassol31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- at Twente5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
Apoel Nicosia
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 53%
- at Omonia Aradippou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- vs Aris8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 11%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.