Apollon Limassol
vs
Nea Salamis
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Apollon Limassol 2–1 Nea Salamis
The model makes it 60% Apollon Limassol, 21% draw, 19% Nea Salamis — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Apollon Limassol 2.42, Nea Salamis 1.14.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Apollon Limassol: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Apollon Limassol are 5th on 9 points from 5 games; Nea Salamis are 11th on 4 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Apollon Limassol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Apoel Nicosia.
- Last 6 meetings: Nea Salamis 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Apollon Limassol 1–1 Nea Salamis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apollon Limassol at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis
Apollon Limassol
- W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026
- D2-2Apoel Nicosia19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia12 September 2026
- W3-1Anorthosis5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aris29 August 2026
Nea Salamis
- L1-2away to Apoel Nicosia10 October 2026
- W3-0Anorthosis19 September 2026
- L1-2away to AEL11 September 2026
- L1-4AEK Larnaca6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos28 August 2026
What these results say
- Apollon Limassol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nea Salamis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nea Salamis had three goals or more.
- Nea Salamis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis
- 8 March 2025Apollon Limassol 1–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 8 December 2024Nea Salamis 1–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 5 September 2024Nea Salamis 3–1 Apollon LimassolFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2024Nea Salamis 0–2 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 4 March 2024Apollon Limassol 2–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 17 December 2023Apollon Limassol 0–2 Nea Salamis1. Division
The two sides
Apollon Limassol carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.48 for Nea Salamis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Apollon Limassol and 1.14 for Nea Salamis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apollon Limassol rate 0.87 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nea Salamis rate 0.80 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apollon Limassol the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Apollon Limassol against 1.14 for Nea Salamis. Apollon Limassol's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.71 for Nea Salamis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Apollon Limassol at home · Nea Salamis away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Apollon Limassol 5, Nea Salamis 5.
Apollon Limassol score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Apollon Limassol
- at Karmiotissa25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- vs Pafos31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- at Olympiakos7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 58%
- at AEK Larnaca27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
Nea Salamis
- vs Pafos26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- vs Omonia Aradippou6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- at Aris21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- vs Omonia Nicosia30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.