Al Shabab
vs
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Shabab 2–1 Al-Faisaly FC
The model makes it 42% Al Shabab, 27% draw, 31% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.64, Al-Faisaly FC 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Shabab are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Al-Faisaly FC are 15th on 6 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Shabab have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Taawon.
- Al-Faisaly FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Al Kholood.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Shabab 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2022, ended Al Shabab 1–0 Al-Faisaly FC.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shabab at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
Al Shabab
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
Al-Faisaly FC
- W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
- L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Shabab
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Al-Faisaly FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
- 12 May 2022Al Shabab 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 20 November 2021Al-Faisaly FC 0–0 Al ShababPro League
- 23 May 2021Al-Faisaly FC 1–5 Al ShababPro League
- 19 January 2021Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 7 February 2020Al-Faisaly FC 2–1 Al ShababPro League
- 30 August 2019Al Shabab 0–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Shabab carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.43 for Al-Faisaly FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Al Shabab and 1.34 for Al-Faisaly FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shabab rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Faisaly FC rate 0.64 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Shabab against 1.34 for Al-Faisaly FC. Al Shabab's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.47 for Al-Faisaly FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Shabab at home · Al-Faisaly FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Shabab 8, Al-Faisaly FC 8.
Al-Faisaly FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Shabab have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Shabab
- at Al-Fateh22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Abha5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- vs Al-Ettifaq20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Al-Faisaly FC
- vs Al-Nassr23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 16%
- at Al-Fayha31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Al Diriyah5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.