Al Diriyah
vs
Al Riyadh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Riyadh
The model makes it 47% Al Diriyah, 28% draw, 25% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.51, Al Riyadh 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al Diriyah: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Diriyah are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; Al Riyadh are 12th on 9 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Diriyah have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Al-Nassr.
- Al Riyadh are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Fayha.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Diriyah at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
Al Diriyah
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
Al Riyadh
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
- W1-0NEOM28 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Riyadh had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Riyadh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Al Diriyah carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.36 for Al Riyadh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Al Diriyah and 0.94 for Al Riyadh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Diriyah rate 0.57 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Riyadh rate 0.61 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Diriyah against 0.94 for Al Riyadh. Al Diriyah's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.62 for Al Riyadh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Diriyah at home · Al Riyadh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Diriyah 8, Al Riyadh 8.
Al Riyadh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al Diriyah have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Diriyah
- at Al-Ittihad23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs NEOM30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Faisaly FC5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al-Hilal20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
Al Riyadh
- vs Al Taawon24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- at Al-Fateh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al-Hazm20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.