Al-Nassr
vs
NEOM
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 2–1 NEOM
The model makes it 56% Al-Nassr, 24% draw, 20% NEOM — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 2.11, NEOM 1.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Al-Nassr: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games; NEOM are 5th on 16 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Diriyah.
- NEOM are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Hazm.
- Last 2 meetings: Al-Nassr 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs NEOM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs NEOM
Al-Nassr
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
NEOM
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Nassr had three goals or more.
- NEOM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Nassr
Chance to win the league · 17% today
NEOM
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs NEOM
- 7 March 2026Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOMPro League
- 8 November 2025NEOM 1–3 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and NEOM
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo40
- Ângelo32
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette51
- A. Koné41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Nassr carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.66 for NEOM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Al-Nassr and 1.07 for NEOM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Nassr rate 1.15 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEOM rate 0.76 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Nassr a 16.5% chance of the title and NEOM 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 1.07 for NEOM. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.12 for NEOM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · NEOM away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Nassr 8, NEOM 8.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); NEOM have let in 2 there.
NEOM score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- at Al-Faisaly FC23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 64%
- vs Al-Wasl FC26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 68%
- vs Al Kholood29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 73%
- at Pakhtakor2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
NEOM
- vs Abha24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 55%
- at Al Diriyah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al-Ittihad5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Kholood20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.