Al Taawon
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Taawon 0–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 15% Al Taawon, 19% draw, 66% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.67, 5.26 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Taawon 0.99, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.61.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Taawon are 17th on 3 points from 8 games; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Taawon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Al Shabab.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Al Kholood.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Taawon 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al Taawon.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Taawon
- L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026
- L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr28 August 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
- D3-3Al-Ettifaq11 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Ahli Jeddah8 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Taawon
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 50% today
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Chance to win the league · 20% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 28 February 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al TaawonPro League
- 1 November 2025Al Taawon 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 11 May 2025Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 11 January 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–3 Al TaawonPro League
- 7 January 2025Al Taawon 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FCKing's Cup
- 24 September 2023Al Taawon 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCKing's Cup
Leading scorers: Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Taawon
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Retegui51
- J. Quiñones43
- T. Reijnders40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al Taawon carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.95 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Al Taawon and 2.61 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Taawon rate 0.59 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.23 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Taawon a 0% chance of the title and Al-Qadisiyah FC 19.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Taawon against 2.61 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al Taawon's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.02 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Taawon at home · Al-Qadisiyah FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Taawon 8, Al-Qadisiyah FC 8.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Al Taawon have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Taawon
- at Al Riyadh24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- vs Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs Abha20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- vs Al-Hilal23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- vs Al Sadd26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 76%
- at Al Riyadh29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 70%
- at Al-Gharafa2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.