Asyut Petrol
vs
Zamalek SC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC
The model makes it 19% Asyut Petrol, 32% draw, 49% Zamalek SC — fair odds of 5.26, 3.13 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (19%).
Expected goals: Asyut Petrol 0.58, Zamalek SC 1.24.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Zamalek SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Asyut Petrol are 16th on 5 points from 6 games; Zamalek SC are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Asyut Petrol have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Abu Qair Semad.
- Zamalek SC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Al Ahly.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zamalek SC at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC
Asyut Petrol
- W2-1away to Abu Qair Semad13 October 2026
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Smouha SC26 August 2026
Zamalek SC
- L0-2Al Ahly11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
- W2-1Petrojet31 August 2026
- W3-0away to National Bank of Egypt26 August 2026
What these results say
- Asyut Petrol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zamalek SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zamalek SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Asyut Petrol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
Zamalek SC
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Asyut Petrol and Zamalek SC
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Ashraf20
- Ahmed Sherif20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Asyut Petrol carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.62 for Zamalek SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.58 goals for Asyut Petrol and 1.24 for Zamalek SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asyut Petrol rate 0.46 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zamalek SC rate 0.70 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Asyut Petrol a 0% chance of the title and Zamalek SC 6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zamalek SC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Asyut Petrol against 1.24 for Zamalek SC. Asyut Petrol's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.13 for Zamalek SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Asyut Petrol at home · Zamalek SC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Asyut Petrol 6, Zamalek SC 6.
Asyut Petrol score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Zamalek SC have let in 0 there.
Zamalek SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Asyut Petrol have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Asyut Petrol
- vs El Gouna FC30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Al Masry24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Masr10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Al Ahly15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Enppi22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Zamalek SC
- vs El Mokawloon28 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at El Gouna FC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Al Masry9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at Smouha SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs El Geish23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.