Nieciecza
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Nieciecza 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
The model makes it 55% Nieciecza, 25% draw, 20% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nieciecza 1.89, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.93.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Nieciecza: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nieciecza are 3rd on 17 points from 10 games; Puszcza Niepołomice are bottom on 9 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Nieciecza are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Unia Skierniewice.
- Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 July 2026, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 0–3 Nieciecza.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nieciecza at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Nieciecza
- D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026
- W1-0Odra Opole19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Mielec14 September 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 August 2026
Puszcza Niepołomice
- W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026
- L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
What these results say
- Nieciecza went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nieciecza
Chance to finish in the top four · 68% today
Puszcza Niepołomice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
- 8 July 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 0–3 NiecieczaFriendlies Clubs
- 12 July 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceFriendlies Clubs
- 12 January 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 NiecieczaFriendlies Clubs
- 11 June 2023Nieciecza 2–3 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 12 April 2023Nieciecza 2–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 15 August 2022Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 NiecieczaI Liga
The two sides
Nieciecza carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.26 for Puszcza Niepołomice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Nieciecza and 0.93 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nieciecza rate 0.70 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.51 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nieciecza a 20.4% chance of the title and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nieciecza the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Nieciecza against 0.93 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Nieciecza's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.66 for Puszcza Niepołomice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nieciecza at home · Puszcza Niepołomice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Nieciecza 10, Puszcza Niepołomice 9.
Nieciecza score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 4 there.
Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Nieciecza have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nieciecza
- at Arka Gdynia24 Oct · I Ligawin 30%
- at Miedz Legnica31 Oct · I Ligawin 36%
- vs Chrobry Głogów7 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Podbeskidzie21 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- vs Stal Rzeszów28 Nov · I Ligawin 64%
Puszcza Niepołomice
- vs Lechia Gdansk24 Oct · I Ligawin 31%
- vs Wisla Plock28 Oct · Cupwin 32%
- at Stal Rzeszów2 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Miedz Legnica6 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- at Chrobry Głogów21 Nov · I Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.